Saturday, 29 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

After yesterdays madness, the broader market closed moderately lower today by around 0.5%. Certainly, only part of Thursdays gains were taken back by the bears, and there remain what could still are probably bull flags on many of the indexes.


NYSE comp




Today's moderate declines offer some renewed hope that the original 1420 target can still be hit.

Considering the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we are now very low, and 1420 looks a very likely near term floor. It would be surprising if somehow we can punch through the recent important 1397 low, before at least one further up cycle.

The doomer bears need to see an overnight gap through the 1420 level, otherwise, I just can't see it in this cycle.

The one particularly bearish aspect to close the week and month was the transports, with a monthly close below the key 5000 level for the first time since December 2011. The 'old leader' is warning of trouble for October, and this warning is not to be dismissed lightly.

A little more later