Friday, 28 September 2012

12pm update - waiting for Q3 to end

This mornings Chicago <50' PMI figure was yet another signal that the US is probably now in recession. As ever though, it won't be until late next April or even July 2013 that the mainstream will officially recognise it as such. By that time, a lot will have happened to the western world.

As for the crazy market, today is an interesting reversal from yesterdays utter madness. The bears really need a close below the Wednesday 1430 low. That would certainly help start October in the right manner.



VIX, daily, rainbow


The hourly cycle is a little concerning, after all, we appear to be putting in a higher low in price terms. The one thing bears have going for them is the MACD which still offers downside into the 1420s.

The VIX daily rainbow chart, a green candle - an inside day so far, its certainly not super bearish for Monday, but its something for those who plan to hold short across the weekend. VIX target remains a brief higher spike to 18/19.

As things are, I see zero chance of a break below the important 1397 low, that is still probably some weeks away - and that's even if we assume 1474 was the peak, which for now, is the great unknown.

I remain short, and still seeking what seems a logical exit around 1425/20.

back at 2pm