Wednesday, 16 May 2012

VIX - Volatility topping at 22 ?

With the break of VIX 21, the next target was 24, but its possible we're now stuck in the low 22s. Despite the market closing weak today, the VIX only managed to close near the opening level. There is clearly NO sign of a trend change yet though, Bulls will need to see VIX break back under 21 to feel confident in any multi-day bounce/rally.

VIX, 60min

VIX, daily, rainbow (elder impulse)

VIX, daily, bullish outlook


Todays close was still bullish for the VIX - especially on the daily charts, where there is zero sign of a trend change. However, we are now in the lower part of the original target zone of 22/25. Considering the main indexes have fallen for 11 days, a bounce is seemingly likely to begin in the next few days.

One issue is that even when we do get a bounce in the indexes, just how far back will the VIX retrace? The daily 10MA is now up to almost 20, a brief move under that seems possible, so maybe we're looking for something in the low 19s/18s.

More later, dealing with the Daily Index Cycles