Wednesday, 16 May 2012

1pm update - holding long into Facebook Friday

So...I'm long from an hour ago, around the sp'1334 level. Market is still largely in churn mode, but we are holding above the recent low. So long as that holds into the close, bulls can probably look forward to 1350/55 by Friday lunch time. A VIX red close would be a useful confirmation for those long.

SP'60min, count'1

Sp'daily cycle - bearish outlook


Minor' wave'1 - if that's what it was, lasted 10 days, wave'2 - which 'if' the floor is in, will probably last 3-5 days. That would make sense in terms of time. I had considered whether Friday might be a peak, but that seems unlikely.

My plan is to look for sp'1350/55 for a first exit..and then re-long again on the next 15min cycle pullback. Right now, 1350s look more likely Friday than tomorrow, but it won't take much for this market to start a reverse cascade upwards to kick all the bears out.

The big question - if today is the start of wave'2 UP, how high do we go?  The H/S formation would suggest 1370 at least...and there is huge resistance at the 1380/85 level.

*bulls should seek a close above the hourly 10MA - currently sp'1336

More across the afternoon.