Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Daily Cycle Update

So we've seen a bullish Monday, with Tuesday trading being 'mixed' to put it politely. The daily cycle counts listed below outline a 5 wave decline. Assuming that last Friday was the floor of a 13 day down cycle - wave'1, we are now due wave'2 UP, probably to sp'1370/80 by first week of June.

The most important issue would be then to look for a flat top/rollover in early June, and then the start of a collapse wave'3 - which should be much more severe than wave'1. Since wave'1 was a loss of around 100pts, I'd guess we have a fair chance of -150/200pts in the SP'500, maybe even more if the market really gets upset about some scary developments in the EU this June..

IWM, daily, bearish outlook

Sp, daily, bearish outlook

SP', weekly


I've added the weekly cycle to put both daily charts into perspective. I think what is especially important is the moderately declining (grey) trend line from the recent weekly candle peaks. It hints at a possible lower high in early June of around 1390. However, I'd again note the weekly 10MA of 1369 which will be primary resistance next week - if the current up cycle continues.

In terms of the two daily cycle charts noted above, both still look reasonably bullish for the rest of this week. I'd still look for at least a test of sp'1340 (equivalent to IWM 78.00) later this week. Only if we close over sp'1352 would the ultra-bullish outlook for new index highs come into play.

For the moment, I remain very bearish about the coming few months. My best guess remains sp'1150/00, no later than end July.