Thursday, 26 April 2012

VIX - volatility update

With the indexes having a somewhat surprising up day (hey, even the clown channel hostess admitted it after  today's close), the VIX again fell further, closing at the lowest level in 3 weeks. Considering the bigger macro-economic picture, is it remarkable to see VIX in the mid teens. However, for the moment, there are no signs of any black swans, we are back in the 'everything is okay' market mindset.


VIX, daily

VIX,daily- rainbow (elder impulse)

VIX, weekly


First, the weekly chart - broke under the 10MA today. This is the first time in over 3 weeks, and if VIX closes tomorrow under 16.50, its a very poor sign for those looking for near term falls in the indexes.

The daily chart, it could be said is still offering a potential bull flag, but we have fallen from 21 into the low 16s. This is not exactly an inspiring bullish case for the VIX into early May.

There remains no sign of a bullish turn upward in the 60min cycle, and the VIX rainbow chart has NO confirmed 'go LONG' vix signal.

So...this Thursday, with just 2 trading days left of April, there is absolutely no sign of increasing volatility, in fact..quite the opposite. I guess those writing index/VIX puts are the smartest traders out there this month.