10am update - morning chop

A little lower, then a little higher...then lower again. Its a real mess this opening 30 minutes, but we remain in a tight trading range. I would still guess we are most probably at the top of the hourly cycle, with at least some moderate fall across the day. The big question is whether the buying is exhausted, have all the weak bearish hands been stopped out yet?

*The jobs data was arguably weak, and Pending home sales +12.8% yoy. Hmm, 12.8% though of a small number, is still a small number.


Sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Bears MUST get this market back below the 10MA on the hourly cycle. Similarly, we need to see the VIX start to break back up into the mid 18/19s. If the market merely trades sideways for the rest of today, baring a bad GDP number tomorrow, bears are going to suffer.

Most important of all...look for a break below the 10MA..currently 1385. I believe we will see such a break by lunchtime, whether we close under it, that's another issue entirely.

More later!