Good morning. After the overnight futures were up around 0.25/0.4%, we are now looking to open moderately lower. As noted yesterday, even a small move up would bust key levels and likely kick out a lot of bears, which would really mess up both near and long term bearish outlooks.
We have weekly jobs data at 8.30am EST, and pending homes sales at 10am.. Both will most definitely help determine which way this market is swayed by late morning. Keep in mind that Friday we have the first estimate for Q1 GDP, and that will be a key data economic point for the weeks ahead.
For today, the bears will need...
1. No break above 1392/95
2. A good intra-day push back below the 10MA - currently 1383 (although that will rise at the open)
3. Preferably, a close in the 1370s
4. A positive close for the VIX
Bulls only need a brief break into the mid 1390s, and it would seem likely we'd push on through to 1400, and then 1410/15 again, and eventually challenge the 1422 high next week.
It remains a very edgy situation, as ever...stops would be essential for the 'serious money'.
Good wishes for Thursday trading....updates throughout the day!