Thursday 13 July 2017

11am update - a wave to at least 2435

US equities have seen a morning high of sp'2447, and have turned fractionally lower. Further weakness to at least sp'2435 is due by mid afternoon. For the bears, things only get interesting with a break <2420, and considering this morning's new historic high in the Transports, that won't be easy. WTIC has built sig' gains of around 1.0% in the $45s.. but looks highly vulnerable.

sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*a new historic high for the Transports of 9742, making it a day for the bulls... even if we close sig' lower.
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As the Yellen continues to babble about 'prudent', 'transient', and 'gradual', equities are cyclically due to lean weak into the afternoon. Even a hit of the lower end of the gap zone to 2425 won't be easy... but the cyclical setup does allow it.

For a sig' net daily decline, we'll need giants like AAPL swing lower, along with WTIC.

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notable weakness/reversal, AMD, daily



AMD opened higher, but there is a full reversal, with AMD now sig' lower. First soft downside target is the daily 10MA.. currently around $13.30.
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weakness, miners, GDX, daily



I'm seeing some rather bizarre bullish talk and charts about gold out there. Yesterday saw GDX settle with a black-fail candle.. and its playing out today. Sustainably trading under old core support.... it sure ain't bullish.

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time to cook !