Thursday, 12 May 2016

1pm update - Transports breaks the Friday low

Whilst the broader market remains moderately weak, there is more significant weakness in the 'old leader' - Transports, which has taken out the Friday low (equiv' to sp'2039).. currently -1.5% in the 7500s. The market looks set for increasing weakness for the remainder of this week.

Trans, daily



*note the sp'500 seeing a minor bounce from the 50dma of 2053.

As things are.. a break of the sp'2039 low looks probable.. along with VIX 16/17s.

Most realistic bearish case is a weekly close in the 2020/10s... with VIX 18/19s.

however, I just can't see any justifiable catalyst (other than pure cyclical/technical reasons) to have any realistic hope of anything lower than that.

notable weakness...  AAPL, daily

With the $90 threshold taken out..  next big level is $70.. but for now.. the mainstream are in utter denial of what is currently underway.