sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Unlike the past two days... the market has failed to rally, and the failure has resulted in a severe 3.2% swing from 1950 to 1886.
Even if the market can attain a daily close >1900, the damage has been done, and technically speaking, the Aug' 2015 low of 1867 is now on the menu.
Hopes of 1970s in the near term.... fading away.
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notable weakness....
CNX -13%
F -5.7%
FCX -10%
RIG -6.6%
strength...
TVIX +20%... but interestingly.. .well below the Monday high
GLD +0.5%, with Silver +2.4%.. a clear fear-bid
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Super bearish engulfing candle...
Seen on the daily chart.. today's reversal is a HUGE one, and bodes for further downside.
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3.01pm.. So.. how low could we implode in the near term?
Well, I highlighted last Friday...
sp'monthly2b, Guppy
Best case for the bears.. a brief spike down to the sp'1730s... aka. .like Jan' 2008.
Were we to hit that level.. even I would consider going long
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3.07pm.. Clown finance TV highlighting Albert Edwards...
Sp'500... @ 550... Hmm
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3.17pm.. Its getting choppy again... and barring some kind of absolutely bizarre hyper-ramp into next week, the 1970s are out of range.
Any hope of >2K seems ludicrous right now.
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The only solace for the equity bulls.. the VIX has not exploded into the 30s
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3.33pm... a clear mini short-stop cascade as sp'1900 briefly re-taken.
Regardless of the close.. a major failure for the bulls... as EVERY rally is being sold into.
I realise many will now look for 1867 to hold... but 1750/25 zone IS a valid target within the near term.