Wednesday, 13 January 2016

2pm update - ohoh... now its borderline

US equities continue to fall, with the Tuesday low of sp'1914 failing to hold. The Monday low of 1901 is critical to hold. If 1900 fails, it changes the short term outlook, and would offer the 1860s before the weekend. If the latest Fed beige book fails to inspire, the trainwreck that began Dec'29th will resume.




... lots to say... due

other issues...

Oil -2.2% around the $30 threshold
Gold +$2.. as a fear bid resumes

For now... best guess remains.. UPSIDE to 1970.. but that gets dropped if 1900 fails.

re: wave count/price structure...

VIX is offering a bigger bear flag... if sp'1900 holds... then sub 20s will still be hit.

Count 2081-1901 as  1 ....   with a 2 being Mon-Wed, maxing @ 1950?

In any case, the ongoing underlying equity weakness is starting to spook the mainstream, as even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV noted how there is not any capitulation in the current down wave from late Dec'.

2.02pm. Beige book....  more 'weather' excuses... not inspiring.

Well.. my best guess is that 1900 will hold... but hell.. we're damn close right now @ 1906.

2.04pm.. provisional sign of a turn from sp'1904.. to 1908.  Equity bulls really need to claw back to the 1920s by the close to get out of the danger zone.

2.12pm... okay.. for you wave counting maniacs out there...


123 A...  B down...    123 C        Lousy idea.. or?

2.24pm.. Fractional new cycle low.. 1900.74.. with initial 3pt bounce to 1903.

VIX is so far NOT going hyper, remaining in the 24s....

We do have a CLEAR divergence from when sp'1901.. and VIX 27s...

That does support the notion that we'll rally into the close.

2.30pm.. SPIKE FLOOR from sp'1900...

5min cycle.....

Its pretty clear....  as VIX cooling from 25.52.

For the big money pros.. a simple long trade.. with a stop at 1900.00.  Doesn't get any straight forward.

...2.33pm.. MAJOR fail..... sp'1896.... no support now until 1867.  VIX re-surging to the 25s.

2.35pm.. The really kooky thing is that we're now 60pts (3%) below the morning high.

1890... as the long-stops are ALL getting hit..... ugly ugly ugly 

2.37pm... sp'1890 floor.. at the typical turn time?

Urghh... in any case.. VERY nasty failure for the bull maniacs.