Tuesday, 7 July 2015

VIX divergence

Whilst equities put in a new cycle low of sp'2044, the VIX put in a marginally lower high of 19.20. With equities rallying into the close, the VIX turned negative, settling -5.4% @ 16.09. Near term outlook offers a little equity chop... but with broad upside into August.




Suffice to say.. we very likely have a key VIX cycle high of 19.80 (June 30th').

RE: divergence..

There have been a fair few instances over the last few years where the VIX will put in a marginally lower high... whilst equities put in a marginally lower low.. to complete a multi-week down cycle. That seems to be the case today.

There will of course be further sporadic Greek news headlines in the days ahead, but from a pure chart perspective... we have a VIX top... and an equity floor.

more later... on the indexes