Wednesday, 8 July 2015

USD holding within a giant bull flag

Whilst equities broke a new cycle low of sp'2044, the USD continued to push upward, settling +0.6% @ DXY 97.08. Price structure - since the mid March high of DXY 100.71, remains a giant bull flag... with hyper upside to the 120s in 2016.

USD, daily2

USD, monthly3


The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick higher, and indeed, is now on the high side. A new down cycle looks due.. which (in theory) should see the USD cool into August.

USD looks set to break out and above the bull flag, trend resistance is currently around DXY 98.50... by late August.. 97.50. Once a weekly/monthly close >101, its open air to the 120s... although that will of course likely take at least 9-12 months.

For the 'dollar doomers' out there, I realise you will vehemently disagree, but then.. would you rather hold Yen, Euros... or (eventually)... Drachma instead?

Ohh yeah, some of you are thinking about physical Gold.. or even Bitcoin. Good luck with that.

Update from a typically loud Oscar

Looking ahead

Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, and the FOMC minutes.

*fed official Williams is speaking at 2pm.. and Mr Market will be listening for any chatter on int' rates.. or even the Greek situation.

Goodnight from London