Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -15pts, we're set to open at 1975.  Net weekly gains look probable for most indexes. USD remains weak, -0.4% in the DXY 94.10s. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$8. Oil is -0.4%, in the $46s


sp'weekly6

sp'60min

Summary

As at the Friday close, the market needs to hold sp'1960, to not violate the key rising trend/support. Right now, the market should be able to comfortably hold together... before one final push upward.

Best guess... a morning washout... a turn around 11am... and then recovering into the late afternoon. It is quad-opex.. so do expect some swings.
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Overnight Asia action...

Japan:  Nikkei -2.0% @ 18060. A rather bearish end to the week

China: +0.4% @ 3097. There remains threat of a test of the underside of old broken support in the 3300/3500s.... before things unravel to the 2500/2000 zone.
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End week doom chatter from Hunter


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What am I doing?

I do not plan to get involved on the long side (even Oil) for the reminder of this cycle. Instead, I am merely waiting to find a level to short from. The 2040s still look briefly viable. So, as things are... I'll be on the sidelines across the weekend, but that is what I prefer anyway.

Have a good Friday.
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7.31am.. sp -22pts.... 1968... and is getting pretty close to breaking rising support.

If support is broken, by default, I'll have to look to chase lower on the next 15/60min cycle bounce.

A rather important morning ahead.
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7.46am... Peabody, 1 for 15 reverse split... taking the stock back to around $15.

Considering the mid term outlook for energy prices.... that arguably merely makes it an easier  stock to re-short, esp' via option puts.
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sp -18pts... 1972.   I'd imagine the VIX will be +10% in the 23s at the open.
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8.00am ,  sp -22.. 1968... and that remains a little close to rising support for comfort.

notable weakness:  TSLA, NFLX, both lower by -1.4%

AAPL, DIS, -0.9%... broadly following the main market.
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9.05am.. sp -23pts... so that is 1967...

notable weakness: Oil, -2.8%.... and that is with a weak USD.  Gods help the energy stocks/main market once USD starts rising again.


9.07am... sp -25pts.. 1965.. . with Oil unravelling by the minute... -3.0%


9.12am.. sp -29pts... 1961... at the daily 10MA.

Frankly.. its increasingly looking like we have a cycle of 2020.. with VIX 17s.

Regardless.... I ain't chasing the lower open... we'll no doubt cycle up to some extent.



9.19am.. sp -33pts.. 1957... .. and that is about the very extreme bulls can manage without breaking core support.

Ugly open... with the irony being of course that this is after the Fed kept rates at zero.


9.34am.. With some 'magic'.. the market opens some 10pts higher than was due.

So.. for now... core trends HOLDING.

.. the fact it is quad-opex... further complicates things for those currently short.


VIX opens +11% in the 23s... broadly as expected.

... a  black-fail candle on the VIX looks due by 10am.   Bears... beware!



9.47am.. BLACK-fail candle on the VIX....   its only provisional.. but price action suggest market will be able to build a floor... and hold together into next week.

Wild west trading

Fed days are notoriously messy for trading, and today was no exception, with the sp'500 pushing to a new cycle high of 2020, but settling -5pts @ 1990 (intra low 1986). Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2040s.. where the 50dma is lurking.


sp'weekly1b

sp'weekly8b

Summary

*a busy.. and tiresome day.. so this needs to be short!
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Suffice to say.. we've come within 1% of my first big target of the 50dma around 2040.

To me, 2020 does not make much sense as a key high... the 2040/50s would be far more natural.
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Update from Oscar



Yes, it was made before the Fed announcement, but there are some interesting issues in there, not least about Gold and Bonds.

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Fed/Yellen chatter from Schiff



Interesting little rant from Schiff on today's lack of a rate hike.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see leading indicators... but far more importantly.. it will be quad-opex. So.. expect increasing chop into the weekly close.
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No trades... no losses

I generally try to avoid trading on 'Fed days', and today was no different.. although yes, I did have eyes on Oil for much of the day.

As things are, I remain looking to launch a major market short.. with a view to remain broadly short into mid Oct'. Right now...there looks to be 'easy money' for the bears from 2040 to the 1900 threshold. From there, it will get more risky once in the 1800s. There is a viable mini-crash window to the low 1700s... but first things first.. the market needs to clarify a top across the next few days.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closing moderately weak, after a very wild Fed day, sp -5pts @ 1990 (intra high 2020). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, at least to test the 2020 high.. but with the 2040s almost as viable.. more likely next Mon-Wed.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*Trans has entered the target zone 'blue box' of the 8300s.. with a clear spike. I would guess the Trans will make another attempt for the 8300s.. whether tomorrow.. or early next week.

To be clear though, I do NOT expect sustained action >8400 in the near/mid term.
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As for the sp'500, the daily candle is offering something of spiky top, but 2020 doesn't make much sense as a multi-week top.

Indeed, a test of the 50dma in the 2040s remains viable... but with a close of 1990... the 2040s look viable no earlier than next Monday.

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a little more later...