Wednesday, 13 December 2017

2pm update - time for a rate hike

A press release is due from Print HQ at 2pm, which will detail a 25bps hike in rates, to a new target range of 1.25-1.50%. This will make for the third hike of 2018, and the 4th of the past 13 months. Yours truly was seeking 3 hikes this year, although I was off on the exact timing.



First, keep in mind the initial reaction is often not what the trend will be into the close. In many ways, the bears should perhaps hope for a brief spike upward, before a reversal.

In any case, lets just see what is in the press release....

back at 2.10pm in THIS post.

2.10pm... As expected, rates hiked.

Naturally Kashkari was against a hike, joined by Evans.

Equities, initial jump...with VIX cooling. Ironically, thats not good for the bulls.



*Metals are seeing minor swings, Gold currently +$6, with Silver +1.5%, the latter of which Gundlach was touting on the lunchtime show.

back at 2.30pm....

2.30pm... notable weakness, BAC, daily

A 'sell the news' event. Cyclically high, a test of the 10dma would not be a surprise. Broadly though, the psy' $30 is appears due before year end.

notable strength, FCX, daily

... as copper +3cents to $3.05. Sister stocks SCCO and TECK are similarly strong today.

Cyclically, the setup favours equity bears to 2650/46, whether into the close, or tomorrow. Eyes on the VIX, a push into the 10s is due.

Time for Yellen, back at 3pm.