Monday, 11 April 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2041 (intra high 2062). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2025/15 zone this Tues/Wednesday, before crawling upward into the Friday opex.



Closing hour action: very distinct weakness into the close, as the equity bull maniacs themselves look increasingly tired.

**Equity price action seems to be preceded by underlying VIX strength.

Most notable.. VIX held rising trend this morning.. whilst equities saw a failed break above declining trend/resistance.

So.. an annoying open.... a lot of tedious chop... with a rather interesting closing hour.

Equity MACD (blue bar histogram) is in the process of turning negative, and could (in theory) tick lower across all of tomorrow.

Arguably, bears best opportunity for a short term exit - late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

*I remain short, am increasingly twitchy about getting an exit in the 2020/10s, along with VIX 17/18s.

more later... on the VIX