Wednesday, 16 March 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts @ 2027. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a Thursday gap higher to the price gap zone of sp'2038/43.. before a key top is put in. Sustained action >2040 looks extremely unlikely. First soft downside target is the 1940/30 zone.



*closing hour action: moderate chop.. leaning on the upside, with a new cycle high of 2032.

The 2pm and 3pm hourly candles are somewhat spiky.. typically indicative of a top. 

... and now we have the FOMC out of the way.

The window is now wide open to the equity bears for the rest of the month.

Best guess.. Thursday gap higher... to sp'2038/43... but then maxing out... and rolling lower into the Friday close.

In theory... given just 1 or 2 pieces of negative news.. we could be sp'1940/30 next week.. and that is certainly a down wave I'd like to be part of.

*I'll seek to short equities and be heavy long VIX tomorrow morning.

more later... on the VIX