Thursday, 11 February 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly lower, sp -33pts, we're set to open at 1818. USD is -0.3% in the DXY 95.50s. Gold continues to catch a very strong fear bid, +$36, now in the $1200s. Oil remains in broad implosion mode, -2.8% in the $26s.




This market is really starting to get frustrating.

Cyclically, it is a lousy setup in terms of a short lasting anything beyond a few days (if not hours), but as things are, the bulls are unable to muster more than a day or two of consecutive  upside.

Now we're on the edge of taking out the Jan'20th low of 1812... below that, there really isn't anything but empty air to key fib' retrace support of 1730/10.

Update from a returning Oscar

I might cover the targets more later, but the low 1600s and 1500 area are certainly valid... and do seem probable. The issue of acceleration is also something I am seeking, but hell, I thought it'd be no earlier than mid March.

I am NOT in the mood to chase lower from the 1820/00 zone, not least with next Monday CLOSED, which is kinda interesting, as that is when China re-opens after being shut for a week.

Urghh.. its getting messy!

early movers...

BAC -2.8% @ $11.60s... as rate hikes seem off the menu for rest of the year
DIS -2% in the $87s, next support is the 80/75 zone
TWTR -6% in the low 14s... terminal decline?

TSLA +3% @ $148... having traded from 135 to 150s yesterday AH
GDX +6.6%... as precious metals are starting to scream higher
TVIX +11% in the $12.70s, near the Jan'20th high.

Overnight action

Japan: -2.3% @ 15713... broadly ugly
Germany: currently -2.0% @ 8836... next support 8K


Ohh, and we've a few more hours of Yellen today. If she is as weak as she was yesterday, or says something stupid, the market could implode under 1800 today.

Riley would note the typical pre-opex Thurs/Friday low, and that is one of my concerns.

I'm also aware some are counting the move from sp'1947 as a 5 wave decline... although there are bearish aspects that suggest its something more grander than that.

In any case... broader trend IS clear. Anyone going long is facing a freight train, and we've not even got to the stage of mini black swans yet in the oil/gas/mining sector. Ohh, and then there is Deutsche bank.... but that is fine though, right?

Have a good Thursday

9.26am.. sp' -32pts... 1819... with VIX set to open +7-10% in the 28/29s.

Gold +$44... Silver +3.0%....  the latter is an interesting one, as although its primarilty an industrial metal.. it still catches a fear bid like Gold.

9.40am ... black-fail candle on the VIX... and more interestingly.. the gold/silver miners.

The infamous pre-opex Thurs/Friday low... before 5-7 days of bounce-upside?

notable weakness, BA -4% in the $111s.... . sub 100 is a given in the broader picture.