Thursday, 11 February 2016

2pm update - chop chop

The sp'500 is holding the earlier floor of 1812 - along with a VIX opening peak of 29.26 (rogue print ignored). Clearly, it remains a borderline situation, with threat of failure at any time. From a pure cyclical perspective, the market has prime opportunity to rally from here.




Re: metals/miners.... both are cooling from their earlier highs, but still set for powerful net daily gains. More on those two later.. on my other pages.

As for equities.. we're approaching the 2.30pm typical turn time.... best chance for a late day recovery will arrive soon.

Frankly, any close >1812 would be something for those currently long, but first serious target should be the hourly 10MA, which at the close will be around sp'1835.

notable weakness:  BA, -8.8%...

strength... US bonds.. TLT

Breaking a new high into the $135s. Clearly... ALL downside targets are on hold.... and if equities broadly decline into the early summer....  TLT will continue to climb.. and accelerate.

2.28pm... We're still seeing rogue prints on the VIX

1min cycle

Been happening way too much lately.

2.34pm.. Fractional new cycle low of sp'1811... but its time for a turn... high risk to the bears from here.. not least on a Thursday.. the week before opex (as Riley often highlights).

VIX +12% @ 29.60s....  still moderately divergent from Jan'20th.

2.40pm... Market TRYING to floor.. from 1810

back at 3pm