Thursday 11 February 2016

1pm update - the VIX divergence

The Jan'20th low of sp'1812 saw VIX hit a peak of 32.09. Today saw the VIX max out from the very open at 29.26, for now... there is a rather clear divergence... with the VIX suggestive equities are still set to rally... despite there being no real capitulation.


VIX'60min



sp'60min



Summary

*the VIX computer is a little twitchy, there have been a few sporadic 'rogue prints' today and across the last few weeks.

5min


I am disregarding the recent spike high to 29.71... its a rogue print.


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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the equity cycle is on the low side.

Equity bulls should be seeking >1825 by the close to give some hope that we've a double floor in the sp'500.

Again though, it is notable that the Nasdaq and R2K have already broken below their respective Jan'20th lows.
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notable reversal... DIS, daily


DIS is one to watch as earnings were unquestionably fine. First bounce target would remain the $96/98 zone.... which is a fair way up.. and might equate to sp'1920 - where the 50dma will be end month.
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back at 2pm