Tuesday 9 February 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, with the sp -1pt @ 1852 (intra range 1834/68). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, as Yellen will very likely attempt to inspire/placate the market.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing hour action: I've no idea what the closing spike was about... I wasn't watching.
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Suffice to add, it was a day where the market was more than content to broadly remain within a holding pattern ahead of the Yellen.

Yellen will have two successive daily opportunities to 'inspire' the market, not just in the US, but across the world.

Of course, she could also screw it up and say something stupid, but I'm sure her script writers will be more than aware of what the market wants to hear.

.. and in any case.. cyclically, we're still due another wave higher, before first decent opportunity for the next multi-week down wave... one which in theory will be some form of crash wave, whether to the 1700/1600s, or somewhat lower.

.. but clearly... we ARE headed broadly lower. Even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV seem to recognise that.


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notable reversal...

I noted at 1pm the situation in Gold..and the related miners.... 3 hours later.. we have a rather clear reversal.

GDX, daily


A number of the gold/silver miners have way too much debt... and a story for the spring/summer will be capitulation in the mining sector.

Not all will survive. Go read the balance sheets, it ain't so difficult to work out which names are set to disappear.

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*a daily wrap will probably appear at 8pm EST.
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