Don't lose your head

The past six trading days have been pretty rough for US equities, with the sp' unraveling from 1947 (38% retrace of the Dec/Jan' wave - 2081/1812) to today's low of 1828. Underlying price action is increasingly bearish, and the mid term outlook remains absolutely clear.


sp'weekly1b

sp'monthly1b

Summary

The last six trading days (if you count from the Monday afternoon high of sp'1947), have indeed been a mess.

For now, all that can be said is that there will be a real problem if the Jan'20th low of sp'1812 is broken under.

It is notable that the Nasdaq and the second market leader - R2K, both broke below their Jan'20th lows today.
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Market/Econ chatter from Schiff




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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Wholesale trade data. Clearly though, the market will be more focused on Fed chair Yellen, due Wednesday morning.


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As for not losing your head...

Today saw another instance of an overly moody poster, whining about yours truly.

Whenever I get such a message, I usually do a little digging..

It seems the latest moody reader is someone who wishes to dismiss a large amount of the world population based on the percentage of melanin they have in their skin. I don't need that kind of reader.
By the way 'doug', at least a few of your postings are arguably in violation of Google's T & Cs. Such sentiments are simply not allowed these days.


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I shall address the issue of...

'You haven't called this market right since at least the beginning of the year'.

At the end of December 2015 we had a very clear bearish close, with the sp'500 finally settling below the key monthly 10MA. Other world markets also reflected this. My outlook - posted Jan'3rd was thus outright bearish, calling for the 1600s this spring/early summer.

With just a little more digging...

So... actually, as recently as Jan'25th you thought I was 'right (again)'.

.. and just a little earlier, Jan'14

 'usually right'.

Hmm... who is the crazy one here?  
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Trying to find an acceptable setup

With the mid term trend now unquestionably bearish, I have a general 'no longs' rule. Its merely a case of finding a tolerable level to short from.

I realise some out there are far more flexible, trading in/out each day... that is not currently what I wish to do. I'd rather take a large strategic market short from a decent level, and not have to worry about it.
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As market volatility increases in the weeks and months ahead, many are going to get whipsawed over and over again, and eventually lose their head.



No one can blame good/bad trades on the doomers at Zerohedge.. nor the cheerleading maniacs on clownTV, and least of all... me. I'll keep writing here, and it remains bizarre to think there are those who can't much stand me... but still come to read my posts.

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As for 'Keep your head up your ass'...  I'll let the Wolverine conclude tonight....



Goodnight from a multi-cultural London