Friday, 13 November 2015

11am update - continuing to unravel

US equity indexes continue to decline, with a new cycle low of sp'2027. The broader market is clearly pressured by WTIC Oil, on the edge of losing the $40s, -2.3%. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, Silver -0.5%. VIX has hit the key 20 threshold, currently net higher on the week by a very powerful 40%.


USO, daily2



The bigger daily/weekly cycles for Oil remain outright bearish, sub $40s look due... and that sure won't help the broader US market.

As things stand, the sp' is currently net lower on the week by 67pts (3.2%), and this is clearly going to spook many in the mainstream.

*I continue to favour BAC as a longer term bullish play... but the daily chart only saw an initial break of trend yesterday...

BAC, daily2

Cyclically, another 2-3 days lower look probable. Right now, I could only stomach going long somewhere around $16.50. For now... I'm more than content to just watch.

**to be absolutely clear, if the Fed do not raise rates at the Dec' FOMC, the broader market and especially the financials will (ironically) likely fall.

time for an early lunch