Wednesday, 12 August 2015

11am update - VIX cooling to the gap

US equities have likely floored for the day at sp'2052 - with VIX 16.28. However, there still seems high likelihood of another equity wave lower before the Friday close. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles continue to increasingly swing in favour to the bears.




*I EXITED VIX-long and INTC-short in the previous hour.

VIX was a fine exit.. but intel has been particularly annoying lately, and I will probably leave it alone for some time.. despite a H/S target of $22.50.

So... a morning washout.. and we're clearly seeing some considerable technical damage.

On any fair basis, the July low of sp'2044 looks a viable target.. along with VIX 17/18s...

*I will strongly consider picking up VIX again, in the 15.20/14.25 zone. The 14s do look difficult though, considering the current momentum.

What most should likely recognise, the big 20 threshold does not look viable in the current cycle.

11.30am..  sp'2060... VIX 15.50....  on track...   target 2070/75.. with VIX 14s.

I will strongly consider picking up VIX in the 14s late today/early tomorrow... for a short term trade, with a target exit before the Friday close.