Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Yet another reversal

The US equity market has seen yet another failed rally attempt. The bigger weekly cycle is already offering a marginally lower high of sp'2105, and a lower low of sp'2076. With another reversal, near term outlook is back to outright bearish, first targets are Dow 17000, sp'2050/40s... with VIX 16/17s.




Even if you disagree with the notion of a H/S for the Dow, recent price action is clearly one of increasing weakness.

Obviously, the 17k threshold will likely offer very strong support to the Dow, and frankly, I don't expect the market to be trading under there in the current cycle.

Update from Mario at SMF

There is also a video discussing the Dow, if you check his YT channel.

The following video by Ron Walker was originally posted at the weekend.

Ignoring the fact that it doesn't take account of the 'Monday nonsense', there are a great many issues highlighted about the bigger monthly charts. In particular the issue of the 10MA... and considerations of the price structure/action in the early phase of the collapse wave of 2007/09.

Highly recommended for those who have the time, and want to consider the grander picture. 

Looking ahead

Wed' will see the latest EIA report, along with the US treasury budget... but Mr Market has little care for the latter.

*fed official Dudley will be speaking in the early morning.. and its possible a few remarks might be noticed by Mr Market.

Goodnight from London