Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly weak, sp -18pts, we're set to open at 2066. USD is under pressure, -0.8% in the DXY 96.40s. Metals remain in bounce mode, Gold +$9, whilst Oil is +0.7%. However, commodities look set to break new lows across the next few months.


VIX' weekly2


*PBOC have been meddling in the past hour or so... pushing the Renminbi back up back around 1%. Equity futures have clawed off the lows - we were trading under the equiv' of sp'2060... taking out the early July low.

Regardless of such meddling, some notable technical damage has been achieved by the bears in overnight trading.

Equity bears should be battling for a break into the 2050s this morning.. with a viable daily close in the 2040s.

As noted many times.. they will be sig' support around the Dow 17000 threshold. If however that fails.. then next support is not until 16500... which would equate to the sp'2000/1975 zone.

*I will continue to have eyes on the VIX. A break above resistance in the mid 14s will be a key bearish signal.. .and offer the 16/17s.... late today or tomorrow.

After a few frustrating weeks, I am looking to close out my short positions this week... and then re-short on a bounce... later next week.

As the VIX weekly chart highlights, I'm most certainly looking for VIX in the 20s... and will want to be broadly long volatility from now until late September.

Update from an increasingly bearish Oscar

The issue on cycles is interesting, along with repeated bearish patterns for Gold.

Doomer chat, Hunter with Hoffman

I am very mixed on what Hoffman has to say. Some of it.. talk of the 'cartel' is the same old Gold bug nonsense. Some of the chatter about currencies though is worthy of consideration.

As ever.. make of that... what you will.

Overnight China action: There were a few vain attempts to hold minor gains, but the Shanghai cooled into the close, settling -1.1% @ 3886. It won't take much to spook the market into another wave lower.... first target is the 3200/3000 zone, secondary 2500.

By 2500 though, will the China leadership allow ANY stocks to be traded? I'd imagine they will have the 'malicious short seller' firing squads on standby this Sept/Oct'.

Have a good Wednesday

7.56am.. sp -16pts...  set to open @ 2068.

notable weakness: BABA -4.7% in the $73s... post earnings depression. It did briefly print $69.18.

9.31am.. VIX opens at 15.19... a decisive break above resistance of 14.50.

Long day ahead.. lets see if 16/17s by the close... along with sp'2050/40s.