Thursday, 16 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at a new cycle high of 2117. Sustained action above 2120 looks very difficult in the near term. USD is continuing to rise, +0.4% in the DXY 97.50s. Metals are naturally under pressure, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is +0.5%




*important note. The Yellen will be talking to the US Senate today at the unusual time of 2.30pm.. rather than 10am.  I would imagine that will drag on into the market close, probably to 5pm EST.

So... we're set to open higher.. above yesterday's high, and now its a case of whether this market melts upward into the weekly close, or if we see a swift reversal.

I would still guess we have a high opportunity of retracing lower... at least to the 2090s... but with a rather attractive micro gap around 2080.. which in theory would equate to VIX 15/16s.

notable early movers..

NFLX +10% @ $108...   6 cents x4 .. that is $0.24 of earnings a year... giving a PE of 450... a mere FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY YEARS for an investor to recover their investment.

INTC +2.5% in the $30.40s... with EPS of 55 cents.. but underlying numbers plain suck. Market seems to realise this..having sold it lower from the low $32s last night.

Overnight China action: Again, the volatility continues to lessen, with the China market seeing early weakness to 3688, but settling +0.5% @ 3823. Renewed weakness for a day or two seem probable, before another lunge higher back above 4K.. to the 4400s in August.

I am still looking for another massive wave lower.. to the 3200/3000 zone this Sept/Oct.

*I remain long VIX from 12.92. I'd guess we'll be trading under that this morning... but there still appears a fair chance of seeing at least the mid 14s by the Friday close. As ever, I'd prefer an exit into the weekend.

Have a good Thursday

9.00am.. Draghi is battling against questions from the media hacks about the Greek bailout'3.

US indexes increasing gains, sp +13pts.. we're set to open at 2120.... a mere 14pts shy of the historic high.

INTC +2%... still cooling from the AH high... if the market does turn lower today.. or tomorrow... INTC will be in trouble.

9.35am.. INTC.. huge opening FAIL.... +0.5%.... set to turn red.