Tuesday, 31 March 2015

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but there really isn't much downside power behind it, as reflected in the VIX +3% @ 15.00. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2... whilst Oil is still weak, -1.3%.




*Chicago PMI 46.3... pretty dire.. and it is the second consecutive recessionary number. Q1 GDP is going to be lousy.

So.... weakness to begin the end of month/Q1, but its nothing significant yet.

Hourly cycles are offering more sig' downside in about 2-3 hours. There is potential there for the bears across the day.

Notable weakness: TCK -8.1%... as the bid/merger rumour is blown out of the water.

10.01am. Consumer confidence: 101.3... crazy high... highest level since Aug'2007... almost back to housing bubble peak hysteria, although frankly.. it is of little relevance, relative to the Chicago PMI. THAT is what people should be taking notice of today.

10.11am... for those closely watching... opening black-fail candle on the VIX. That rarely bodes well for the bears.

A few years ago.. such a bad PMI number would have killed the market -1.5%... but no... not in these times.

Seems little point being short this market.... not least with the rest of the world markets soaring... but more on that another time.