Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Net monthly decline?

The week began with significant net daily gains of sp +25pts @ 2086. Equity bulls need a Tuesday close above 2104.50 for a net monthly gain...  but that looks out of range. However, despite the recent weakness, market is set for another net quarterly gain.. only needing to settle >2058.




*with renewed upside, the opening weekly 'rainbow' candle is an outright bullish green, and with a break over the 10MA (2074).. it bodes for broader upside into early April.

So.. rather strong gains to begin the week. I had expected some Monday gains... but not this much. Next short opportunity does not look viable until Thursday.. but then... with a 3 day weekend... who wants to hold short (or long) across that?


Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Schiller HPI, consumer confidence, but more importantly..the latest Chicago PMI. Market is expecting 50.2 vs the previous 45.8.

Lets be clear... anything under the 50 threshold is indicative of a recession. If the Tuesday number is anything less than 48 or so.. market should be at least moderately upset in terms of a possible negative Q1 growth number.

*Fed official Lacker will be speaking on the Economic outlook at 9am... and Mr Market will no doubt be listening for any interest rate comments.

Goodnight from London