Monday 14 September 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1966. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 95.20s. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$1, whilst Oil is -0.7% in the $44s.


sp'daily5


Summary

Well, its Fed week, perhaps the most important week since the Fed started cutting rates in 2007.

Will they raise? With equities battling upward from sp'1867... it is certainly possible. After all, when its comes to 'data dependency'.. the only data point the fed really cares about is the level of the sp'500/Dow...  that should be clear to most after all these years.

If rates are raised this Thursday though, many will not be pleased... not least the IMF.
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early mover... AAPL +1.0% in the $115s.


As someone seeking renewed downside after the Fed, I really don't want to see AAPL sustainably holding above the old broken $119s. Its something to keep in mind.
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Overnight China action: A weak start to the week, with the Shanghai comp' settling -2.7% @ 3114. Despite the decline, I'm still seeking further upside to the 3400/500s. The pressure will be building though... with a serious threat of the 2500/2000 zone by early November.
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What am I doing?

Just holding a micro USO-long position


Seeking a break >15.00.. and that will open the door to the 16/17s. Other than USO, I don't much want to add anything ahead of the Fed. Most certainly... no shorts until after the Yellen is out of the way.

Have a good Monday.