Friday, 17 July 2015

VIX hugely lower on the week

With equities seeing very sig' net weekly gains, the VIX was ground lower across the week, settling Friday -1.3% @ 11.95. Across the week, the VIX fell -29.0%. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the upper gap zone of 15/16s.. before resuming to the 12/11s in early August.





More than anything, the weekly VIX cycle was warning of trouble in the previous two weeks, with clear spiky top candles around the key 20 threshold. The fact last week saw a black-fail candle only added to my concern that the VIX had maxed out.

Regardless of any bounce to the VIX 15/16s next week, the VIX looks set to be broadly subdued into August.

*I remain holding a small VIX long position, seeking an exit in the 15/16s by next Tue/Wed.

more later.. on the indexes