Friday, 17 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'2124.. a mere 0.5% from breaking a new historic high. USD is fractionally lower @ DXY 97.60s. Gold is -$1, whilst Oil -0.5%.




*awaiting CPI data at 8.30am.

Clearly, having ramped from sp'2044 to 2124.. a gain of 3.9%, we're due a minor retrace. The lower gap zone looks difficult to hit next week, but would be the natural downside target, before resuming higher into August.

Equity bears should be looking for a daily VIX close >13.25 to offer some hope of a turn, the price gap zone of 15/16s to be hit by next Tue/Wed.

Doomer chat with Hunter


Overnight China action: Momentum is building to the upside, with the China market ending the week on a very positive note, +3.5% @ 3957. A move to around 4400 is anticipated by mid August. From there... another major wave lower... at least to re-test the recent low around the old breakout level of the 3400s.

**Today is OPEX, so expect increasing chop into the late afternoon.

Have a good Friday

8.31am ... Housing starts, +9.8% in June @ 1.174 million

Headline CPI +0.3%... inline...    y/y +0.1%... Hmm

Less food/energy, y/y +1.8%... still pretty close to Fed target of price stability (yeah.. the irony of that increase across 10-20 years)

notable reaction... metals.. Gold -$3, with Silver -0.3%.

8.49am.. Gold -$6... a mere $8 from breaking the key floor of $1130.... after that.. nothing but empty air to the giant $1000 threshold.

9.06am.. Gold -$8.50... a mere $5.50 to go.... set to follow Copper and Silver.. both having already broken the key Nov' 2014 floor.

9.32am.. Opening black-fail candle in the sp'500......

Reversal candle in the VIX.. from 11.77.

9.37am.. The reversal is holding so far.....   with a cycle high of sp'2128

9.40am.. Black candles all over the place.... if the reversal holds into 10am... it bodes pretty good for bears.