Friday, 24 July 2015

The China bounce is almost complete

The Shanghai comp' has climbed from 3373 to a Thursday close of 4123. There are multiple aspects of resistance in the 4300/500 zone. Renewed severe weakness looks due into the early Autumn, breaking new cycle lows to the 3200/000 zone. Will the China leadership shut the market completely?

China, daily

China, monthly


Seen on the daily cycle, there is a highly arguable ABC bounce... very close to completion.

The bigger monthly cycle maxed out in June, with the initial wave flooring at 3373. Further downside to the 3200/3000 zone looks probable in Sept/Oct. Best case for the doomer bears is around 2500, which would be a clear 50% crash from the summer high.

I realise many are calling new highs later this year, but I find that hard to believe.. not least if the US market has 'issues' from mid-August to early October.

Looking ahead

Friday will see PMI manu' and New Home Sales.

Goodnight from London