The China bounce is almost complete

The Shanghai comp' has climbed from 3373 to a Thursday close of 4123. There are multiple aspects of resistance in the 4300/500 zone. Renewed severe weakness looks due into the early Autumn, breaking new cycle lows to the 3200/000 zone. Will the China leadership shut the market completely?


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

Seen on the daily cycle, there is a highly arguable ABC bounce... very close to completion.

The bigger monthly cycle maxed out in June, with the initial wave flooring at 3373. Further downside to the 3200/3000 zone looks probable in Sept/Oct. Best case for the doomer bears is around 2500, which would be a clear 50% crash from the summer high.

I realise many are calling new highs later this year, but I find that hard to believe.. not least if the US market has 'issues' from mid-August to early October.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see PMI manu' and New Home Sales.

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Goodnight from London