Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +14pts, we're set to open at 2081. The bigger weekly cycles continue to suggest broader weakness to the Dow 17k threshold. The USD is bouncing, +0.4% in the DXY 96.90s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is +0.2%.




So... we're set to open higher, and now its a case of whether the gains fail right from the open, level out by 11am, or can build across Wed/Thursday.

Best guess... equity gains to max out by 11am.

With the recent technical breaks - not least on the Dow, I find it hard to imagine new index highs in August.

Daily/weekly cycles remain suggestive of further weakness, to Dow 17k, sp'2000, along with VIX in the low 20s.. within the 'immediate term'.

*I will strongly consider picking back up a VIX-long in the 14s... having dropped from 16.10. On any basis... long VIX from the low teens seems very reasonable considering the recent price action.

Overnight China action: broadly weak, despite a serious attempt by the China leadership to 'inspire' the buyers and threaten anyone who even considers selling. The Shanghai comp' settled -1.7% @ 3663.

*awaiting an array of econ-data this morning, although clearly, the big one remains Q2 GDP.. due Thursday.

TWTR have earnings at the close of today, unless they accidently release them in the closing hour instead.

Have a good Tuesday

8.37am.. sp +12pts.. 2079..... sustained action >2090 looks very difficult.

I will have eyes on the VIX around 11am.
notable strength: Ford +2.7%, around the $15 level, on better than expected earnings, EPS 47 cents

9.40am.. No hurry on the next short trade....   sp'2085/90 zone looks viable... before resuming lower.