Tuesday, 28 July 2015

2pm update - did it stop yet?

US equities have continued to grind higher, to sp'2091... a mere 2.2% away from breaking a new historic high! It remains somewhat bizarre how many continue to get so twitchy on even a moderate decline of 3-4%. VIX is surely close to a near term floor in the mid 13s... having cooled from the low 16s.


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

Well, it is the 2pm hour... typically when Mr Market will max out.

The micro 5/15/60min cycles are all on the high side now.. and we're set for some equity cooling into the close.

Personally, I just can't see sustained price action back in the sp'2100s.... but hey... we'll find out soon enough, not least with a Fed day tomorrow.. and first reading of Q2 GDP on Thursday.

Also.. since Friday is end of month, we'll have some of the usual 'end month' issues.

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*Naturally, yours truly was a few hours early... and I remain long VIX.. from the low 14s. A break into the sp'2050s.. whether later this week.. or next.. should easily result in VIX 17/18s.. and for me.. that'll be more than sufficient to have justified another VIX-long trade.
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