Tuesday, 28 July 2015

2pm update - did it stop yet?

US equities have continued to grind higher, to sp'2091... a mere 2.2% away from breaking a new historic high! It remains somewhat bizarre how many continue to get so twitchy on even a moderate decline of 3-4%. VIX is surely close to a near term floor in the mid 13s... having cooled from the low 16s.




Well, it is the 2pm hour... typically when Mr Market will max out.

The micro 5/15/60min cycles are all on the high side now.. and we're set for some equity cooling into the close.

Personally, I just can't see sustained price action back in the sp'2100s.... but hey... we'll find out soon enough, not least with a Fed day tomorrow.. and first reading of Q2 GDP on Thursday.

Also.. since Friday is end of month, we'll have some of the usual 'end month' issues.

*Naturally, yours truly was a few hours early... and I remain long VIX.. from the low 14s. A break into the sp'2050s.. whether later this week.. or next.. should easily result in VIX 17/18s.. and for me.. that'll be more than sufficient to have justified another VIX-long trade.