Tuesday, 28 July 2015

1pm update - equity bounce maxed out?

The sp'500 has bounced from an early low of 2069 to 2087, along with VIX @ 13.80.  Regardless of the exact close, today is likely a mere bounce day.. with lower equity lows by the monthly close. USD is holding moderate gains of 0.2% in the DXY 96.70s. Gold is u/c, whilst Oil +2.0% in the $48s.




*I am long VIX from 14.15.. with sp'2086. Clearly.. a little early.. but still... its lower than my 14.50 target from yesterday.. and I'm content with things.

Now its a case of whether we see those sp'2050s.. with VIX 17/18s before month end.

The bull maniacs are set for a net daily gain... but there really doesn't seem to be anything sustainable about this up wave. It won't take much to rattle the market and break new cycle lows.. whether late tomorrow or Thursday.

notable weakness: BABA -1.3% @ $80. If there is main market upset into Sept/Oct... BABA will vulnerable to returning back to the IPO level of $68. Mr Ma is probably more than concerned about that.

strength: INTC +1.8%.. but still.... only in the $28s... and seemingly headed for the low 20s.