Thursday, 30 July 2015

1pm update - equities look vulnerable

US equities are trading broadly flat, having filled the opening gap to sp'2107. VIX looks set for another attempt to break.. but more importantly.. hold the 13s. USD is building strong gains, +0.8% in the DXY 97.80s. Metals are under natural pressure, Gold -$8, with Silver -0.4%




So... the question I'd ask anyone is... '...would you expect VIX to be sustainably trading under the FOMC spike low of 11.85?'.

Personally, with the VIX at these levels... it seems just a matter of a few days before the VIX is back in the mid teens. Once the Monday high of 16.27 is held above... then the low 20s will be viable... and quickly.

*after some consideration, I am SHORT-INTC, from the $28.90s.

INTC, weekly

I have an initial target (as I have had for over a month) of the 26/25s by early Oct. However, the H/S scenario is suggestive of $22.50.

So... Mr Cautious is getting somewhat less so....