Thursday, 30 July 2015

11am update - weak chop

US equities are seeing some weak chop, with an early low of sp'2094. It remains the case that with the VIX already low, how are equities going to be able to push higher into August? Cyclically, the setup favours the equity bears into the Friday/monthly close.




*note how sp'2090 is kinda an interesting level on the sp'500 chart. If we see any price action in the 2080s.. it'd be suggestive of 2050s.. if not a lot lower in August.

Despite the recovery/bounce, we do have a break of trend.. in both equities and VIX.

Daily MACD cycle on the VIX is offering a warning that despite a two day equity bounce... we're so low on the cycle.. there really is only one way for the VIX to go from here...  UP.

*I remain long-VIX, and have little interest in exiting until at least the 16s.

notable weakness:  FB -4% in the $93s.

Someone just reminded me of this...

INTC, daily

Today's candle sure ain't pretty... another fail on trend... at the old floor of $29. Target remains 26/25.... H/S would suggest $22.50

time to shop... back soon