sp'60min
sp'monthly
Summary
*I highlight the monthly chart.. since it is of course the last day of June. ALL equity indexes are set for net monthly declines... and we're seemingly in the early phase of a summer/early autumn correction.
If we keep falling to sp'2K in the days ahead, it will make the notion of new highs into early August.. rather unlikely.
More on the monthly closes... after the close of today.
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My plan for today?
Well, I'm increasingly thinking we'll see a full washout to the giant 2K threshold. If price structure across today is a baby bear flag... I'll strongly consider launching an index short and/or VIX long.
There is probably no hurry on such a trade... prime time would be around 2.30pm.
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Update from an increasingly bearish Oscar
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Overnight action in China... another wacky night... with the Shanghai comp' swinging from -5% to settle +5.5% @ 4277. Pure crazy. There is a fair bit of chatter on whether the Chinese central bank were bidding up stocks... impossible to know of course... but what is clear... the volatility remains extreme.
I still think the 3400s are the most valid... and natural target this summer.
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Good wishes for Tuesday trading.
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8.10am.. Equities picking up again.... sp +17pts... 2074...
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8.44am... Here is something...
sp'15min
Seeking a bear flag to develop today.. maxing out in the 2080/85 zone or so. In theory.. any short form 2080s should offer around 30pts of downside to test the 200dma of 2053.
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8.56am.. ohoh, the Cramer is sounding bearish on clown finance TV. All thats missing is for Gartman to announce he is going heavy short.. .and we'll have ourselves a short term floor. lol
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9.42am.. ..Awaiting Chicago PMI...
9.45am.. PMI: 49.4 vs the prev' recessionary number 46.2
Broadly. thats a lousy number... STILL suggestive of Q2 marginal recession.