Tuesday 30 June 2015

3pm update - weakness into the monthly close

US equity indexes will be extremely prone to renewed weakness in the closing hour.. as the Greeks will fail to pay, making it the first developed nation to ever default with the IMF. USD is holding gains of 0.7% in the DXY 95.40s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7


sp'15min



VIX'60min


Summary

Effectively.. target was reached on a secondary bullish wave into the 2pm hour as expected.

What I find a problem is the hourly VIX cycle... which is more suggestive that a market short from the 16/15.50 zone is viable tomorrow... or even Thursday (monthly jobs data).

For now... I'm sitting back. Call it overly cautious, but I just ain't in the mood to get nailed on further upside tomorrow.
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updates into the close....


3.11pm... a little weakness to sp'2064....  VIX is holding up though...

I'd still expect some of the rats to sell into the close.. ahead of the Greek default this night.


3.15pm.. sp'2063...  its not looking so pretty...  the real issue is whether 2050 fails tomorrow... then we might actually see some mild panic.


3.29pm.. sp'2062.... the rats are getting twitchy.... ahead of the overnight default.

Naturally.. yours truly is not short.... but at least I'm not long. oh well. 


3.46pm.. sp'2065.... its getting increasingly choppy.

*I remain on the sidelines... yours... Mr Cautious.

... back at the close