Tuesday, 16 June 2015

A man is utterly tired of the Greeks

Greece entered the Euro zone on a grand lie, and perhaps it will exit on a lie too. What is clear, the pressure is close to breaking point, and the Greeks look set to at least partially default on foreign held debt. It remains difficult to guess if the Greek Govt' will still claw to the Euro currency for another few years.

Its time for Greece to drink the poison

Greece, monthly

USD, daily2, outlook


*... and that might be the last Game of Thrones reference for some months. What a gods damn horror show it remains. Is it time for True Detective (season'2) yet?

As for the Greeks... I am just one of many who are utterly tired of seeing the world capital markets get periodically riled because of a country comprised of just 11 million. My own capital city has almost as many people, and is more productive than all of the Greeks put together.

Just reflect back to late spring, May 2010... 'flash crash' week.... it was the Greeks who were a primary cause of market upset. Five years later, the Greek economy is in a far worse state, more debt, and is can kicking on an almost day to day basis.

What and when?

The Greek Govt' will likely receive another 'last chance' offer later this week. It is impossible to know if the Greek leadership will play the game one time and provisionally accept the offer. Even if they do... I'm of the view that Greece are still going to default within the next few months.

Here is a serious question...

What kind of idiot in Greece will still have their Euros in a Greek bank? No doubt the 'smart money' made a run for the exit door months.. if not a few years ago.

Most should remember what happened in Cyprus. A similar 'Friday/Sunday night surprise' is coming for the Greek people, a bank holiday, and probably a forced conversion of remaining Euro deposits - to be sifted across to the Govt, with depositors being given semi-worthless Drachma in return.

The initial moves in any such resurrected Drachma will make for some grade 'A' financial entertainment.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Housing starts.

*as ever, there will be the threat of sporadic Greek related headlines across the day.

Update from Oscar


Eyes on Intel

I am keeping things simple lately, mostly just watching the bigger trends, not least the USD, which looks set for a hyper ramp to the DXY 120s. Long dollar... and also by default, short metals/oil seem a reasonable trade in the weeks to come.

I'm also watching INTC, as I think it might be a key early warning of trouble for the broader market.


First downside target remains the low $29s.. but there looks to be a viable short term spike into the $32s this Wednesday, before resuming lower. I'll certainly consider shorting INTC after the FOMC announcement... if the price action/structure look fine.

Goodnight from London