Thursday, 15 January 2015

The ECB are set to ruin the bear party

It was a fourth day for the equity bears, but the ECB are set to ruin the party next week, with a very likely announcement of a t-bond buying programme. Regardless of the QE amount, the market will likely be 'inspired' higher into month end.


sp'weekly


sp'monthly


Summary

*With the earlier break under sp'2000, the monthly cycle has been offering an initial warning sign, via a MACD bearish cross. As things are.. if the market can ramp hard into month end (seemingly likely).. then bears will be still be awaiting a confirmed closing monthly turn.
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So far this month, we're net lower by -2.3%... in the scheme of things, its not a massive amount, and it won't take more than a few days of upside to turn the month positive.

Considering the ECB are set to launch a T-bond buying program, the market looks set to rally into end Jan/early Feb. Those currently short should have good short-stops of at least some degree.
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Update on Copper


A new multi-year low of $2.42... close to target zone. I would get 'deflationary spooked' on a monthly close <$2. That seems unlikely though.
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Looking ahead

Thursday has a quartet of data.. weekly jobless claims, PPI, empire state, and phil' fed manu' survey.

*clown finance TV 'economic expert' Liesman is set to interview IMF 'Managing Director' Christine Lagarde at 12pm, and Mr Market will no doubt be watching.
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Goodnight from a very stormy London city