Lets take our monthly look at ten of the world equity markets
Greece
With Syriza winning the recent election, the Athex has been seriously shaken, with a net monthly decline of -12.6% @ 721. The Greek financials have been absolutely destroyed, and most look set to be nationalised within the relatively near term. From a pure price perspective, there is no real support until the 2012 low of 471.
Brazil
With weak commodity prices, the Bovespa slipped lower for the second consecutive month, with a net decline of -6.2%. Near term outlook is weak, with key support around 44k, which is another 5-6% lower.
France
With the ECB announcing QE-pomo (set to begin in March), the CAC gained a powerful 7.8% @ 4604, the highest monthly close since May 2008. There looks to be viable upside to the giant 5k threshold by late spring.
Germany
The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, began 2015 with an extremely strong gain of 9.1% in the 10600s. There looks to be viable upside to the 11500/12k level by late summer.
UK
The UK market - having been stuck for a full two years, is battling hard for a break above the giant 7k threshold. The January gain of 2.8% was somewhat significant, and a new historic high looks due by April/May - even if there is near term weakness in the first half of February. Once a monthly close is attained in the 7000s, there is arguably 'straight forward' upside to 9k by end year... and from there.. 10k by spring 2016.
Spain
The largest of the EU PIIGS - Spain, saw a modest gain of 1.2%, and remains stuck in a rather tight range. The monthly candle is offering a spike floor, with near term upside to the resistance threshold of 12k. It is notable that despite the price gains, underlying MACD cycle turned negative for the first time since late 2012.
USA
The mighty Dow ended January on a particularly bearish note, with a net monthly decline of -658pts (-3.7%) at 17164. The 17k threshold remains rather critical, if that is lost, there is viable downside (as suggested on the weekly charts to 16500...(4% lower)... which would equate to sp'1920/00 zone.
Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) closed negative for the first time since late 2012. Certainly, outlook in the near term is bearish.. .before the ECB QE-pomo fuel begins to kick in. By March/April, the lower monthly bollinger will be offering supreme support around 15k.
Japan
The QE/BoJ fuelled Nikkei saw a monthly gain of 1.3% in the 17600s. The giant 20k threshold looks due this year, although there is near term viable downside to 16250/000 zone.
Russia
With energy prices continuing to fall, the Russian market fell for the seventh consecutive month, with a net monthly decline of -6.7%, although notably holding above the Dec' low. The Russian market is likely in the process of building a multi-month floor - much in the style of late 2008/09. Once Oil prices put in a key floor.. and turn upward... the Russian market will follow. First upside target will be the psy' level of 1000.
China
The China market saw its run of eight consecutive monthly gains come to an end, although it did manage a new cycle high of 3406 - very close to next key resistance of 3500s. Once we see a monthly close >3500, there looks to be relatively easy upside to 5k... before year end.
Summary
So... a very mixed month for the world equity markets. There was distinct strength in most of the EU markets, without question, largely due to the announcement by the ECB of a giant QE-pomo program that is set to last at least 18mths.
Meanwhile, with weak commodities, the Brazilian and Russian markets continued to weaken.
With a new leadership, the Greek market remains the train wreck of Europe. If Syriza refuse to play the game of 'placate Mr Market', then further weakness looks inevitable. Further, the partial.. if not complete default of their national debt looks a given... its just a matter of when. No doubt, that will give the world capital markets a real (if brief) scare.
Looking ahead
A pretty busy week is ahead...
M - Pers' income/outlays, PMI/ISM manu' sector, constru' spending
T - Factory orders
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv' sector
T - weekly jobs, intl' trade, productivity/costs
F - monthly jobs data, consumer credit
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Back at the Monday open :)
