Friday, 30 January 2015

3pm update - Oil jumps into the weekend

US equities have seen a notable break above declining resistance, but are now slipping again. Meanwhile, far more dynamic, Oil, which just earlier was higher by a rather extreme 8%. Metals are similarly building gains, Gold +$23.


USD, daily'2, rainbow


*first green candle since late November, and infinitely more powerful. Without question... today's upside in Oil is one of the strongest gains in a long while.. although January is still set for net monthly decline of around 10%

As for equities.. it remains a real mess.

We do have a clear break above declining trend... but now its looking somewhat ugly again.

A Friday close <2k would be something of a train wreck for the bull maniacs....

3.11pm... sp'2005.... its getting real edgy... with VIX 20.63.. close to high of the day.

3.22pm.. sp'1999... NEW daily low... and it turns the sp'500 cycle BEARISH.

If we close <2k.. it'll be the first bearish monthly close since Jan'2012.

3.25pm... Even AAPL has turned red (new historic high of $120.00 earlier)...

*to be clear... sp'2002 is the threshold for a monthly bearish MACD cross.. which to the technical maniacs out there... is the one to watch.. into the close.

3.31pm.. back to 2005... it remains pretty wild out there.. with VIX 21s

sp'500 Net monthly decline... -2.6%  biggest since Jan'2014

Notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by -5%... on the oil jump

3.35pm.. looking at the VIX monthly chart... it will break positive MACD cycle at the Monday open... is suggestive of a full wave lower to sp'1920/00 zone within 1-2 weeks. Make of that.. what you will.

3.43pm.. its getting fast and dirty.. sp'1998.... vix 21s + 15%

3.49pm.. Gold +$25.... almost fully reversing the Thurs' drop... huge monthly gain.... more on that.. later.

Still marginal as to whether we see a monthly bearish close in the sp'500.... need <2002.

3.53pm... ugly close...

*I'm bailing on a legacy R2K position, I'm out....  since the door is now wide open to sp'1920/00.... no point holding across the weekend in my view.

3.55pm... So.. now its a case of sp'1988 double low to be taken out...

Yes..there is support at the 200dma... but price action looks increasingly lousy... and we're set for a monthly BEARISH close.

Bulls failed................ back at the close.