Thursday 29 January 2015

3pm update - messy day

Regardless of the exact close, it has been another messy day in market land, very minor opening gains... a sell down to 11am (new cycle low sp'1989)... but latter day strength. Price structure is a bear flag on the smaller 5/15min cycles.


sp'15min


Summary

Suffice to say... despite the latter day gains, I'm not confident the market is going to soar on 'isn't everything fine GDP/PMI' data.

Best guess... a hit of the 200dma of sp'1973 tomorrow, before a rebound. However, I have LOW confidence in the near term. It is a real mess.. and borderline situation.
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*a monthly/Friday close <sp'2000 will result in MARCON'6 for the sp'500... which would be the first bearish monthly close since Jan'2012.

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Notable weakness: FCX -4.3%, as the metals market is whacked.


3.27pm.. market making a play to break down trend... threshold is around sp'2022.

VIX continues to cool. -7% in the upper 18s.
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If the bull maniacs are going to pull a late week recovery... this is almost half way there....