Friday, 30 January 2015

Volatility climbs into end month

With US equities unravelling into the weekend, the VIX built rather significant gains, settling +11.8% @ 20.97 (intra high 22.18). Near term outlook is offering a possible VIX explosion into the 30s... if a daily close <sp'1970. Across the week, the VIX gained a very significant 25.9%





*I very rarely highlight the giant monthly chart on the VIX. Usually, there is little point... but with the VIX itself becoming more volatile.. I think it is becoming increasingly important.

The MACD (green bar histogram) cycle will turn positive at the Monday (Feb'2) open. The last time that happened was Sept'2011... when the market was being smashed around in the sp'1100s.. with VIX in the upper 40s.

The net weekly VIX gain of 25.9% is certainly significant, but equity bears should be seeking a break into the 30s.. if sp' fails to hold the 200dma (1973 or so) next week.

more later... on the indexes