Wednesday, 6 August 2014

The VIX divergence

Whilst equities broke a new cycle low of sp'1911, the VIX notably failed to break last Friday's high of the 17.50s, settling -2.9% @ 16.37. Near term outlook is for VIX to melt lower, at least to the 13/12s.




Last week I mentioned that one aspect I was particularly seeking - in terms of helping confirm an equity low, was a divergence between equities and the VIX.

I was looking for a marginally lower high on the VIX, whilst equities broke another new low.

This morning saw that event.. and with the reversal, I've some confidence in the near term outlook. Equity bulls just need to see sp'1930s and R2K 1140s, and the market will be on the way to at least test the old broken support in the low 1960s.

more later... on the indexes