Friday, 1 August 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are again weak, sp -12ps, we're set to open at 1918. Metals are a touch lower, Gold -$1, whilst Oil is moderately lower, -0.5%. Equity bears are starting the month in a pretty fierce manner, adding to Thursdays smack down.




*monthly jobs data: 209k net gains, headline rate: 6.2% (previous 6.1%).

Welcome to August.... and we have some real issues this morning.

The 200 day MA on the Dow - 16300s is going to be a major target... along with sp'1900 threshold.

Good wishes for Friday trading

8.33am... with the jobs data... indexes bouncing.... sp -2pts... set to turn green.

No doubt.. this turn is going to really annoy those who are short (via options) and are unable to exit until the official open.

Notable strength: LNKD +8%... on earnings.

Metals bouncing... Gold +$5, but with the July monthly decline, metals look suspect for August.

8.41am.. R2K actually turned green +0.2%....  sp -5pts ...

Hourly cycles remain offering a rebound... best bull case.. by mid next week... 1955/65

8.50am... So.. indexes now set to open moderately higher.. with a major turn on the jobs data... an excuse.

Problem for the bulls.. even a move into the 1950s does little to negate yesterday, and a back test in the low 1960s... would be natural.. before more serious trouble.

*primary target for the bears should be lower weekly bollinger... currently in the low 1810s.

9.03am.. sp -6pts... so that is 1924.... just 1.2% from breaking the 1900 threshold. Hmmmm

9.26am.. So.. we're set to open moderately lower, but with high risk of a rebound today.. and into next week.

The real issue is the market going to get much above 1960 next week? If It can't... then...major downside across August.. with VIX 20s.

Notable weakness: GPRO, set to open -10%.. after 'better than expected earnings'.

9.38am... ... a clear reversal underway....bears...beware!

A rather obvious back test target... in the low 1960s... before more serious market carnage.. possible.