Friday, 1 August 2014

Equity bears seize July

Equity bears managed (surprisingly) to turn July from what had looked to be a moderate net monthly gain, to somewhat significant monthly declines. The sp'500 declined by -1.5% across July, the first monthly fall since January.


Dow' monthly


I'm tired... and although I can think of a hundred charts I'd like to highlight to end the month.. two will have to suffice.

First, we have the sp'500, with the first monthly decline since January. Of course, the decline is only -1.5%, not exactly a huge move, but its a start. Equity bears will need to make good use of August, and should be aiming for a break <1900.

As for the Dow, the broader up trend is in real trouble now. Any break <16300 would take out multiple aspects of support, and open up a huge down wave.. but one which would likely take a few months to fully develop.

Other things this month.... USD gained around 2%, Oil lost 7%, Copper managed the third consecutive (if minor) monthly gain. BDI (Baltic Dry Index) declined for the fourth consecutive month, -11%.

Looking ahead

Friday will see the monthly jobs data, market is expecting net gains of 233k, with a static headline jobless rate of 6.1%.

There is also an array of econ-data, but without question, the market will almost entirely be focused on the jobs data.

*next QE-pomo is next Monday, but that will only be around $1bn

Goodnight from London